rjhenn
Champion Author
Des Moines
Posts:22,451
Points:2,230,900
Joined:Aug 2005
|
Message Posted: Sep 5, 2012 1:38:53 PM
The whole argument about food vs. fuel is a red herring.
The real question is: what benefit are we actually getting from the ethanol mandate.
As near as I can tell, as long as corn is the source of ethanol, we're not getting any benefit. Yes, we dilute gasoline with ethanol, but with reduced mpg and the need to use gasoline to plant, grow, harvest, transport and process the corn, we're probably using more oil than we would without the mandate.
The only 'benefit' I see is the diversion of money to the ethanol industry.
|
drpepperTX
Champion Author
Texas
Posts:8,950
Points:753,185
Joined:Apr 2011
|
Message Posted: Sep 5, 2012 6:38:23 AM
"The drought is just being used as a tool by the anti-ethanol lobby, pushing their agenda to eliminate ethanol use in fuel, versus looking at the real cause for the rise on grain commodities futures."
=====================
My, my, conspiracy theorist anyone?
|
SUVFan
Champion Author
Columbus
Posts:13,923
Points:1,634,550
Joined:Oct 2008
|
Message Posted: Sep 4, 2012 9:35:14 AM
>That's like quoting . . . .<
Wow. I won't dignify that comparison by reposting those names, but when the desperation is so great one resorts to their use, there's really no need to dig into any other part of the post.
|
Martinman
Champion Author
Mississippi
Posts:14,739
Points:2,093,830
Joined:Sep 2005
|
Message Posted: Sep 2, 2012 6:41:42 AM
Considering that the last viewable reply is the evening of the 30th (after 6PM, much as it was when I last posted below), replies posted from that same morning are long past being viewable.
It is after all, kind of difficult to reply to something you can no longer see...
First, the fact that a temporary waiver might lower prices at all is irrelevant, regardless of any drought. Even a 10% decline represents little more than a 1-cent per-pound change in price.
There are 56 POUNDS OF CORN IN ONE BUSHEL OF CORN.
And again, even if the price dropped from $8 per bushel to $4 per bushel, this would only lower the price per bushel by 7-CENTS PER POUND. If the world were starving to death simply because of a 7-CENT difference in the cost of corn, world hunger would not be an issue.
Second, China's emergence as the World's number one consumer of corn, soybean, and wheat exports has a far larger impact. The issue is availability, not price.
Chinese Agriculture Imports See Sharp Rise (Wall Street Journal, Jan 2011)
Third, when institutional traders represent 61% of the futures contract trading, it creates a perceived demand that does not exist, and only serves to artifically inflate the price of the commodity. It accentuates the effects of changes in available supply.
Fourth, the 'less than 3%" figure was recently posted here, in a Recent News forum article.
Sorry, not going to waste time manually searching for that article.
Here is an analysis on the impact of the three subsidies for corn-based ethanol, from 2008:
Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies
A more recent analysis looking at varying levels ethanol production:
Potential Impacts of a Partial Waiver of the Ethanol Blending Rules
And lastly, I have no idea what article was on the "home page", much less "when" - nor do I care. I enter every article via the Recent News forum page, as I have for many years.
-----
And quoting frick-and-frack?
Really?
That's like quoting Mussolini and Napolean...
I'm sure both are in total complete agreement with Dr. Lal's other views on Global Warming. I mean, I can't imagine either are embracing his statements here simply because the comments support their anti-ethanol view points. There's no doubt that their comments are based solely upon his superior intellect in all areas - not just those that they consider "Good Science".
.
[Edited by: Martinman at 9/2/2012 9:47:26 AM EST]
|
drpepperTX
Champion Author
Texas
Posts:8,950
Points:753,185
Joined:Apr 2011
|
Message Posted: Sep 1, 2012 7:06:48 PM
An excellent article SUVFan. Professor Lal makes great observations and this is becoming a rarity from most of the elitist university institutional ideologies.
|
SUVFan
Champion Author
Columbus
Posts:13,923
Points:1,634,550
Joined:Oct 2008
|
Message Posted: Sep 1, 2012 3:20:16 PM
This is the fourth post in my series responding to Martinman's September 1 repost of his original message posted on August 30th about 9:45 a.m. I responded to drpeppertx:
Well said, drpepperTX.
The speculators will buy based on their informed guesses as to the effect of the drought and the liklihood of a waiver of the mandate. The price of both commodities (oil and corn) will be affected by these decisions along with all of the other factors that affect production.
|
SUVFan
Champion Author
Columbus
Posts:13,923
Points:1,634,550
Joined:Oct 2008
|
Message Posted: Sep 1, 2012 3:18:03 PM
This is the third post in a series responding to Martinman's September 1 repost of his original post in this thread in a Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:45:30 AM. On Aug 30, 2012 10:57:38 AM, drpepperTX added:
"Fifth, commodity prices for agricultural grains are being driven by hedge fund and institutional investors (Wall Street)."
LOL, I see someone's back to blaming speculators! A fools errand fore sure!
When are these people going to learn? Speculation is based only supply and demand. Corn supply DOWN due to drought with corn demand UP due to ethanol mandate = higher and higher corn prices = higher and higher food and transport cost. Commodity traders can only speculate based on supply and demand. Government mandated increased demand is the root of this. Period.
|
SUVFan
Champion Author
Columbus
Posts:13,923
Points:1,634,550
Joined:Oct 2008
|
Message Posted: Sep 1, 2012 3:15:42 PM
Martinman's post earlier today is an identical copy of a post they made early in this thread in their Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:45:30 AM. Martinman did not repost the numerous replies to that post before this article thread hit the home page. I'm reposting the replies in a series of posts to this thread. The second reply was by fracknsave in a Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 10:06:44 AM:
>>>First, removing the waiver does not stop production of ethanol, it only removes the mandate to include it in gasoline.<<<
If they are making billions of gallons of ethanol and they don't have to blend this food into our gas, what was that secondary market they were going to sell it (ethanol) into? Just curious
>>>Second, multiple economists have stated that the effect will only lower corn futures commodity prices by roughly 3%. That equates to about 28-cents per bushel.<<<
Would these 'economists' also be masquerading as climatologists in their spare time?
>>>Third, the true problem extends not from the lack of food in many third-world countries,<<<
Wouldn't they already be dead if they weren't eating free food?
>>>Fourth, China - fueled by the trade imbalance with the U.S.<<<
China's economy is suffering an unprecedented slowdown at the moment, maybe they will have to go back to rice until things get settled.
>>>Fifth, commodity prices for agricultural grains are being driven by hedge fund and institutional investors (Wall Street).<<<
They may have been born at night, but it wasn't last night, if ethanol goes away, they will too.
The drought is a tool, that's a new one....
|
SUVFan
Champion Author
Columbus
Posts:13,923
Points:1,634,550
Joined:Oct 2008
|
Message Posted: Sep 1, 2012 3:13:50 PM
Martinman's post earlier today is an identical copy of a post they made early in this thread in their Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:45:30 AM. Martinman did not repost the numerous replies to that post before this article thread hit the home page. I'll repost the others in a series of posts to this thread.
I replied first in a Message Posted on Aug 30, 2012 9:55:31 AM:
Fallacies? Please re-read the piece. Lal does not contend the waiver will stop production. He sees that as a necessary step in the process. That the waiver will lower prices at all is meaningful in the face of a drought.
Of course there will be poor people who can't afford food. But removing corn from the food pool so we can burn it to propel our vehicles can only increase the price and make food unaffordable for more.
China is a constant player. Ditto institutional traders. Increase the supply of corn and, all other things being the same, the price should drop. Again, 28¢ is 28¢.
|
Soglaos
Champion Author
Virginia Beach
Posts:2,771
Points:741,155
Joined:Feb 2011
|
Message Posted: Sep 1, 2012 1:56:22 PM
It is not causing hunger
|
Martinman
Champion Author
Mississippi
Posts:14,739
Points:2,093,830
Joined:Sep 2005
|
Message Posted: Sep 1, 2012 6:03:51 AM
There are a number of fallacies to the argument, that ethanol production from corn is causing world hunger...
First, passing a waiver does not stop production of ethanol, it only removes the mandate to include it in gasoline. The corn will "flow" to the most profittable end-market.
Second, multiple economists have stated that the effect will only lower corn futures commodity prices by roughly 3%. That equates to about 28-cents per bushel. One bushel of corn weighs 56 POUNDS. Doubling the price of corn from $4 per bushel to $8 per bushel raises the 'per-pound' rate from 7.1 CENTS PER POUND to only 14.3 CENTS PER POUND.
Third, the true problem extends not from the lack of food in many third-world countries, but with the lack of income to purchase food. It doesn't matter what the price is when you have no money. Regardless whether corn is 7-cents per pound or 25 cents per pound, zero income still buys the same amount of 'corn' - ZERO.
Fourth, China - fueled by the trade imbalance with the U.S. - has become the worlds largest grain importer since entering the markets in 2005. It's annual grain purchases of U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat now total in the hundreds of millions of metric tons per commodity, per year.
Fifth, commodity prices for agricultural grains are being driven by hedge fund and institutional investors (Wall Street). For example, financial institutions now make up 61% of all investment in wheat futures.
Between 2007 and 2012, institutional trading in grain commodities nearly doubled, rising from $65 billion to $126 billion, resulting in inflation adjusted 30-year highs.
Source articles are listed in the Wiki reference on the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 (link goes to the section on Food Prices).
Effect of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 on food prices
.
The drought is just being used as a tool by the anti-ethanol lobby, pushing their agenda to eliminate ethanol use in fuel, versus looking at the real cause for the rise on grain commodities futures.
Look at the comments below, as those sure to follow...
.
|
scu227
Champion Author
New Haven
Posts:4,157
Points:772,855
Joined:Feb 2011
|
Message Posted: Aug 31, 2012 5:26:06 AM
OK
|
ktyson13
Champion Author
Maryland
Posts:1,546
Points:397,850
Joined:Aug 2010
|
Message Posted: Aug 31, 2012 4:06:06 AM
Ethanol is the worse government decision in a long, long time.
|
bonzoonfmb
Champion Author
Florida
Posts:1,787
Points:645,560
Joined:Feb 2010
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 11:09:29 PM
Nomad228 - Thank you for clarifying my point about THE Ohio State University. I can tell by your strong use of the English language and your grasp of grammar and punctuation that you are an alumnus of that fine institution. Thank you for providing firsthand knowledge from the inside.
GO BUCKEYES! - BEAT MICHIGAN!
OSU 2013 NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!
Nomad228 - Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 10:52:39 PM nomad228 Columbus, OH
oh! brother where art thou : )......if osu has anything to do with it....you better get ready to pay ten times the going price for gas/ethanol/food......because they have to be able to cover their raises.......in tuition every year.....and for the new hotel they just bought to house students in.not to mention all those fines for can we say under ahem ...handed sportsmanship. : )if osu has anything to do with the survival of the human race you mite as well shut er down right now and save yourselves the imminent trouble of watching it alal go down the toilet. : )
|
evowner
Champion Author
Salem
Posts:2,187
Points:360,235
Joined:May 2012
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 10:09:59 PM
Unfounded hysteria from the right, how unusual?
|
Amplion
Champion Author
Oregon
Posts:6,772
Points:1,866,035
Joined:Sep 2005
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:47:12 PM
ANOTHER GOOD REASON TO DUMP OBOZO !!!
|
Aviator_Rob
Champion Author
New York
Posts:3,805
Points:414,615
Joined:Mar 2012
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:28:10 PM
Food insecurity is not the same as hunger, @bearzz. There are plenty of people that may have just eaten but they have no idea where their next meal will come from. That is food insecurity.
|
rahcat
Champion Author
Grand Rapids
Posts:2,478
Points:664,150
Joined:Jan 2010
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:24:27 PM
Natural gas
|
Aviator_Rob
Champion Author
New York
Posts:3,805
Points:414,615
Joined:Mar 2012
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:21:28 PM
I'm not sure if I follow your previous comment, @jugband. What about the President and executive orders?
[Edited by: Aviator_Rob at 8/31/2012 12:23:54 AM EST]
|
Aviator_Rob
Champion Author
New York
Posts:3,805
Points:414,615
Joined:Mar 2012
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:18:50 PM
I agree with what you're saying, @Jugband but you have to realize that cellulosic ethanol is WAY more expensive to produce at the moment. That's not to say that the price won't come down in the future but it's not ready for primetime yet.
That being said, corn-based ethanol is really a waste of land, water, fertilizer, pesticide, and the diesel fuel to plow and harvest the corn.
|
Jugband
Rookie Author
San Antonio
Posts:76
Points:310,095
Joined:May 2004
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:18:29 PM
"Why not start with Congress. After all, they make the laws. Forgot that?"
Can you say "Executive Order?"
For the last few years, Obama has made the laws, all by himself.
They are powerful things. For instance, "We" didn't abolish Slavery... Lincoln did that all by himself, with the stroke of a pen, By Executive Order.
|
Aviator_Rob
Champion Author
New York
Posts:3,805
Points:414,615
Joined:Mar 2012
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:14:44 PM
And who exactly are the socialists, @PrinceLH?
If your grandmother is on Medicare, does that make her a socialist?
|
Jugband
Rookie Author
San Antonio
Posts:76
Points:310,095
Joined:May 2004
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:13:45 PM
True, the corn used for ethanol is not also used for food, but the land, water, fertilizers, etc. which would be used to grow food corn get used to grow ethanol corn.
The fact is that we COULD make all the ethanol we want without ever using a kernel of corn. It's called "Cellulosic Ethanol"; any moonshiner can tell you that liquor (ethanol) can be made from any source of cellulose... corn, barley, rye, etc.
Moonshine made from wheat straw wouldn't taste too good, but would get the job done.
Ethanol can be made from wheat straw, which is usually just burned after the wheat is harvested, or plowed into the ground to help the next crop.
THAT involves using a byproduct from growing food, rather than growing something other than food on the same resources that food would use.
Or cellulosic ethanol can be made from sawdust, plenty of that goes to waste at lumber mills, even after they mix the larger chips with glue to make sheets of "OSB" sheathing and flooring wood.
There is a WEED called "Switchgrass", which grows in swampland and on the borders of corn/wheat/etc. fields. It's nuisance plant.
It requires no watering, fertilizing, and in most cases, no farmland that would be any good for growing corn or other food crops.
I'm not thrilled with ethanol that isn't drinkable, but if you're going to do it, there are ways to do it right, which haven't been getting used, and are not really in The Plan, for the future, either.
If we're bound and determined that ethanol is going to be used, there ARE alternatives to burning our food supply in our gas tanks... That was a bad idea long before it was actually tried.
|
granitestater
Champion Author
New Hampshire
Posts:8,830
Points:1,431,820
Joined:Oct 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:10:13 PM
Save the corn. Save the whales, too. FEED people, animals and Indians. In that order. And Mexicans, too. I love flour tacos. But corn tacos are just as good...
|
granitestater
Champion Author
New Hampshire
Posts:8,830
Points:1,431,820
Joined:Oct 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:07:47 PM
I've been crying about this for years...
|
heartbroken2010
Champion Author
Ottawa
Posts:4,354
Points:898,885
Joined:Aug 2010
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:06:35 PM
save the corn , feed people and animals too.
|
jrsva
Champion Author
Virginia
Posts:9,861
Points:1,614,180
Joined:Jan 2006
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:05:32 PM
The more people clamoring for a waiver of the ethanol mandate the better; however, we don’t need a waiver — we need a total repeal of the mandate. Let the market decide; if folks want ethanol let them buy it but don’t require it to be produced and blended.
|
bcok
Champion Author
Los Angeles
Posts:2,126
Points:1,544,495
Joined:Oct 2005
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:03:31 PM
Its eat or drive.
|
Beaveronparade
Champion Author
Hartford
Posts:2,108
Points:636,785
Joined:Mar 2011
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:02:14 PM
I agree! Ban Ethanol in gas & save the corn for food!
|
PrinceLH
Champion Author
Ontario
Posts:2,702
Points:539,995
Joined:Jun 2011
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 9:01:58 PM
Get rid of the socialists!
|
mstearno
Champion Author
Dayton
Posts:8,075
Points:1,733,165
Joined:Jan 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:56:01 PM
osu is on top of it
|
DustyHorse
Champion Author
Virginia
Posts:6,093
Points:1,393,120
Joined:Oct 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:55:28 PM
We have to get rid of the corn lobby. Not likely in an election year.
|
bearzz
Champion Author
California
Posts:1,437
Points:420,645
Joined:Mar 2011
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:55:26 PM
"Food insecurity" is a stupid label in my opinion. What a whitewash . . . if people are hungry or starving, they are hungry and starving . . . not food insecure. Egads ,what a stupid phrase.
|
mrbee
Champion Author
Little Rock
Posts:3,763
Points:2,467,560
Joined:Oct 2005
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:52:36 PM
Get rid of ethanol.
|
bearzz
Champion Author
California
Posts:1,437
Points:420,645
Joined:Mar 2011
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:52:16 PM
Makes sense. . . if corn is used for fuel . . . that affects food for people.
|
Buddy2264
Champion Author
Tampa
Posts:11,664
Points:2,361,170
Joined:Oct 2005
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:47:02 PM
Alas they always said the corn used for ethanol was not also for food. They could extract what they needed and return it to use for animal feed. Also, it cannot all come from corn, there has to be other products used like sugar cane and potatoes as shown by the drought.
|
FlyNFool
Champion Author
South Carolina
Posts:8,249
Points:1,686,175
Joined:Aug 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:45:08 PM
ok
|
SammyAdams
Champion Author
Tallahassee
Posts:3,061
Points:794,510
Joined:Nov 2010
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:39:47 PM
To: TustinDad Re: Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 5:48:21 PM (Printed below)
"ToolinIt wrote: "But will the White House act on reducing the ethanol mandate?"
Why not start with Congress. After all, they make the laws. Forgot that?"
===========================================================
Good observation and a Constitutional place to begin. Will anyone out there please tell their Congress Critter that the Executive branch of the Federal government DOESN'T LEGISLATE.
And while you are at it, please remind your Congressman that this area is not within the purview of ANY branch of the Federal government.
[Edited by: SammyAdams at 8/30/2012 11:46:31 PM EST]
|
wayoung56
Champion Author
Alabama
Posts:2,810
Points:820,285
Joined:Oct 2006
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:37:19 PM
They need to find an economical alternative to corn based ethanol...
|
Jeannemarie
Champion Author
Las Vegas
Posts:27,700
Points:2,035,640
Joined:Aug 2005
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:36:47 PM
Naturally - we got around without gasoline for many milleniums and we can do it again.
|
gsayeg1
All-Star Author
Milwaukee
Posts:792
Points:140,730
Joined:Jun 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:36:35 PM
Something to think about
|
mcmonsta
Champion Author
Honolulu
Posts:3,232
Points:819,520
Joined:Sep 2009
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:36:15 PM
how long before our so called representatives start listening, feed me first
|
Jeeputtputt
Champion Author
Ohio
Posts:3,002
Points:677,465
Joined:Aug 2009
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:34:32 PM
FBF correct!
|
danreino
Champion Author
Twin Cities
Posts:8,358
Points:1,541,705
Joined:Mar 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:34:07 PM
1.25 gallons of petrolem fuel to make just 1.00 gallon of ethanol. The Corn Barons should have to meet Isaac, Malachi and Slipknot.
|
Blue48
Champion Author
Illinois
Posts:7,315
Points:1,639,895
Joined:Feb 2007
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:30:04 PM
KILL ETHANOL NOW!
|
splitrman
Champion Author
Victoria
Posts:1,325
Points:317,515
Joined:Jun 2012
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:25:09 PM
good article. reasonable examples of how to reduce our carbon footprint
|
Rajah
Champion Author
Illinois
Posts:7,567
Points:2,307,405
Joined:Jul 2005
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:23:03 PM
Food crops or biomass grown on food crop lands should never have been used for motor fuel. It's a lose-lose situation. Stop the nonsense NOW!
|
must87searcher
Champion Author
Maryland
Posts:8,987
Points:1,781,425
Joined:Apr 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:20:48 PM
A number of these questions and answer makes sense. Ethanol is not really worth production, especially with the conditions of today.
|
JimVP
All-Star Author
Chicago
Posts:632
Points:154,960
Joined:Sep 2011
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:19:37 PM
It is a waste to use a major food source as fuel. It should be stopped.
|
paulydel
Champion Author
Delaware
Posts:8,794
Points:848,125
Joined:Jan 2008
|
Message Posted: Aug 30, 2012 8:15:24 PM
Get rid of ethanol
|